This year’s ten nominations for the Academy Awards’ Best Picture account for twenty hours of film. That means if you’re willing to commit almost a full day of your life to viewing these marks of cinematic achievement, you’ll have to sift through 1,200 minutes of visual candy to determine which of the ten films is most deserving of the most coveted Oscar.

Most people won’t see all ten, though. Instead, they’ll have to base their opinion on which ever film(s) they were able to catch in theaters. For that reason, expect Avatar to carry the most momentum into the Oscar’s next month because most of the general public has seen it. Last year, a much smaller film, Slumdog Millionaire, carried similar momentum into the award show and won Best Picture. It wasn’t a mega-success from the start, but a mix of critical and public praise along with a continued expansion into new markets leading up to the big night propelled it into the winner’s circle.

Still, it’s funny to think super-movie Avatar could win the same award as little darling Slumdog Millionaire. Even more so, they’re part of an even more bizarre class of elite films of Best Picture winners that includes, traveling back in time over the last decade, No Country for Old Men (2007), The Departed (2006), Crash (2005), Million Dollar Baby (2004), Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003), Chicago (2002), A Beautiful Mind (2001), and Gladiator (2000).

What kind of award show gives its most coveted piece of hardware to a bloodbath like Gladiator one year and a film about someone’s psychological issues in A Beautiful Mind the next? What makes the Academy vote for a musical in 2002 and an epic fantasy in 2003? By this logic, shouldn’t we assume that the same Oscar that went to the Little Indie That Could last year will go to the most expensive film ever made this year?

Often, the Best Picture nominees are buttressed by their nominations in other categories. Nods for screenplay, acting, directing, and less celebrated film elements (i.e. cinematography, art direction, editing, etc.) are major indicators of a film’s ability to take home the biggest prize of all. Looking at this year’s field, Avatar and The Blind Side are the only Best Picture nominees unable to secure nominations for either Best Original or Adapted Screenplay. That says a lot considering ten films make up this list and there are only ten spots for screenplay nods. Clearly, a well-written script is an important trait of the Academy’s view of a Best Picture contender. The last winner to go screenplay nomination-less? A little known Cameron flick about love and a sinking ship.

Six of the Best Picture nominees are also represented in acting categories. Up in the Air leads the charge with a Best Actor nomination for George Clooney and two Best Supporting Actress nominations for its supporting ladies Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick. Precious also makes a big splash with nominations in the Best Lead and Supporting Actress categories. The four remaining Best Picture options nominated in an acting category are only up for one prize each, and it is important to note that Avatar is left off these lists similar to the screenplay categories.

The nominees for Best Director essentially denote the top five Best Picture options, consisting of Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, Precious, and Inglourious Basterds. In fact, five of the last six Best Directors helmed that year’s Best Picture. Therefore we can assume that the five films not included in this category don’t stand much chance at all at winning Best Picture. Also, since an animated film has never earned a Best Director nomination (amazingly that includes Robert Zemeckis’ live action/animation splice Who Framed Roger Rabbit?), you can be pretty certain that while Up has broken through with a Best Picture mention in a field of ten, animated films still have a long way to go before they get serious Best Picture attention.

The ten nominated films have a strong presence in the remaining feature categories as well. Avatar, Up, and The Hurt Locker occupy three of the five slots for Best Original Score; Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up, and Inglourious Basterds occupy four of the five Best Sound Editing spots; Avatar, The Hurt Locker, and Inglourious Basterds take up three of the five Best Sound Mixing nominations; the same three secured three of the five Best Cinematography spots; Avatar earned a Best Art Direction nod; Avatar and District 9 hold two of the three slots for Best Visual Effects; and all five Best Film Editing spots are taken up by Best Picture nominees Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Precious.

Clearly, these films were nominated for the big one for a reason if they have such a prominent presence in other categories across the board. Also, it’s no wonder Avatar and The Hurt Locker are Best Picture front runners, having earned the most nominations with nine each. Still, while Avatar is widely favored over its competition, it’s glaringly missing nominations in acting and screenplay categories. Surely The Hurt Locker is more deserving with Best Lead Actor and Best Original Screenplay noms to go along with others in important categories like Best Director and Best Cinematography.

It is more deserving, in fact, but that doesn’t mean it will win. Based on the Academy’s schizophrenic history from year to year, a good film that few people have seen (it’s only grossed $12 million domestic) stands little chance in the wake of Slumdog Millionaire’s 2008 victory against a giant like Avatar. For this reason, you can’t really take the Academy’s Best Picture choice, whatever it will be, too seriously. While all ten nominated films deserve the distinction and you can make a strong case for several to actually win, it’s naive to think the Academy will actually choose the year’s best film when the big night rolls along. The choice is more so a reaction to what type of film won last year and the film industry’s conscious effort to move in an entirely different direction.

While you can’t fully quantify a film’s greatness, it certainly can only be as good as the sum of its parts. Avatar may earn the bulk of its nominations in categories related to the less sexy elements of film production such as art direction, film and sound editing, or visual effects, but it lacks the same recognition for the crucial aspects of acting and screenplay. That’s where The Hurt Locker finds its edge. It’s a visual spectacle versus a well-performed, strong story, and while it may seem clear that the latter is the better choice in turns of film quality, it will most likely not be the Academy’s choice come March 7th.

Because that’s not how they think.

*For the other side of the coin from a fellow blogger, click here.